Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

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Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Bookiebust on Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:13 am

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Last edited by Bookiebust on Sat Mar 25, 2017 5:17 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Bookiebust on Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:46 am

NCAA Sweet 16 Returnees: Swimming With The Sharks

With the 2017 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let's take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived.

This one pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year.

Do these experienced teams perform with aplomb or do they bomb? It all depends on the situation.

Let's take a peek.

ALL HANDS ON DECK

Unlike the last two years when half a dozen teams each returned to round of 32 this season, only five make a return visit this season. They include Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon and Wisconsin.

According to our database, since 1992, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are 80-51 SU but only 58-70-3 ATS in this round of the tourney.

The cut-line, however, is often times the situation surrounding the game.

Check out the examples below.

NOT QUITE A 10

Looking at it from a varied perspective, SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 33-27 SU and 23-35-2 ATS.

This year finds four of the five returnees, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oregon and Wisconsin coming up short in the gene pool.

And making matters worse, if any of these sweet tomatoes sport a high profile public-loving win percentage of .790 or greater on the season they fall to 11-22-1 ATS.

Not particularly good news for the Zags, the Tar Heels, or the Ducks.

HOT DIGGETY DOG

One of the major roles Sweet 16 Returnees will respond to, however, is when they are cast into an underdog position.

Simply put, Sweet 16 Returnees cast into a Rodney Dangerfield lack of respect role of an underdog of 8 or less points are 16-11-1 ATS. That alone pulls Oregon and Wisconsin off the hook outlined above when they take on Michigan and Florida, respectively.

Better yet, if they are taking facing a sub .830 opponent in this role they win 62% of the time on the scoreboard, going 8-5 SU and 9-3-1 ATS.

Go Ducks!

SEEDY DEVELOPMENT

As expected, #1 and #2 seeds fare the best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 58-17 SU combined. To the spread, however, they are just 37-37-1 ATS, including 12-16-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points (read: Gonzaga and Kansas).

Meanwhile, the same Sweet 16 Returnee No. 1 and No. 2 seeds that are favored by 6 or fewer points are just 2-8-1 ATS in these games when taking on .800 or greater foes. Once again, this is not good news for the Zags or the Jayhawks.

Make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have 'been there-and-done that.'

Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean...
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by lrcredneck85 on Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:02 am

812 Kansas -5 -110
814 Oregon +1.5 -110
815 WVU +3.5 -110/+155
817 Xavier +7.5 -110/+300
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Bookiebust on Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:11 am

BLUES A GOOD COLOR Very Happy WELL AFTER 1 GOOD AND 2 UNEVEN NIT NIGHTS-LET'S GET BACK TO WORK. RED-WE AGREE ON 3 OF 4. NOT BAD-HUNGOVER MINDS!!! GL TO US ALL$$$

6PT

813 Michigan +4½ for Game
815 W Virginia +9½ for Game

815 W Virginia +9½ for Game
817 Xavier +13½ for Game

STRAIGHT

813 Michigan -1½ -110 for Game
813 Michigan (Oregon / Michigan) Over 74½ -115 for Game
815 W Virginia +3½ -110 for Game
815 W Virginia +150 for Game
815 W Virginia (Gonzaga / W Virginia) Over 73 -115 for Game
817 Xavier +7½ -110 for Game
817 Xavier (Arizona / Xavier) Over 68½ -115 for Game
812 Kansas -5 -110 for Game

4 TO 1 PARLAY

812 Kansas -225 for Game
815 W Virginia +3½ -110 for Game
817 Xavier +7½ -110 for Game
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by OxyNite on Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:22 am

Thx bookie for getting the topic up! I fell asleep EARLY last night. New house is a mess, and I'm not even full out of the old. Grrrrrrrr. Wiping me out!
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Bookiebust on Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:15 pm

OxyNite wrote:Thx  bookie for getting the topic up!  I fell asleep EARLY last night.  New house is a mess, and I'm not even full out of the old.  Grrrrrrrr.  Wiping me out!

ALL GOOD MY FRIEND-DON'T KILL YOURSELF-GRAB A DRINK LATER AND WATCH BB Very Happy
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by lrcredneck85 on Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:21 pm

That michigan game has me worried

Sports Insights‏Verified account @SportsInsights  4m4 minutes ago
More
Despite getting only 39% of spread bets, #Oregon just moved from +1 to a pick'em against #Michigan

and


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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by leeball69 on Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:30 pm

Michigan is at a pick!
Should of had a early line that would be the case! Right Bookie Bust?

Got Michigan pick also TT 74
Zags -3
Kansas 5 1/2
Depends on the early games leaning towards Xavier and the points

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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by OxyNite on Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:15 pm

Takin' your advice bookie! Put the big TV up earlier w/ my son, now it's "AhhhhhhH".
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by OxyNite on Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:23 pm

Doesn't get any better than this!!!! (Maybe the old Vegas Hilton!)

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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Admin on Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:24 pm

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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by lrcredneck85 on Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:43 pm

OxyNite wrote:Doesn't get any better than this!!!!   (Maybe the old Vegas Hilton!)

the westgate is terrible these days!!!! Mandalay sportsbook still the place to be
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Admin on Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:22 pm

There was one year when Tyler (cornhusker) and I went for the first rounds and the Hilton did it up HUGE in their events venue. VIP passes for free beer, free food, and about 20 big-screens all over the venue!!!! One of the best 4 days of my life!!!
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Bookiebust on Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:26 pm

lrcredneck85 wrote:
OxyNite wrote:Doesn't get any better than this!!!!   (Maybe the old Vegas Hilton!)

the westgate is terrible these days!!!!  Mandalay sportsbook still the place to be

MGM AND CAESARS ALSO
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Bookiebust on Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:28 pm

OxyNite wrote:Doesn't get any better than this!!!!   (Maybe the old Vegas Hilton!)


HILTON WAS GREAT-BUT DESERT INN FOR ME!!
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Bookiebust on Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:30 pm

leeball69 wrote:Michigan is at a pick!
Should of had a early line that would be the case! Right Bookie Bust?

Got Michigan pick also TT 74
Zags -3
Kansas 5 1/2
Depends on the early games leaning towards Xavier and the points

DOGFIGHT CITY-NEED 3 PTS A MINUTE NOW W MICH? WV LOOKING GOOD-GL TO ALL!!!
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Bookiebust on Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:43 pm

ADDING TO A CRAP SHOOT?
815 W Virginia pk +115 for 2nd Half
815 W Virginia (Gonzaga / W Virginia) Over 38 -115 for 2nd Half
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Bookiebust on Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:47 pm

OX- TV LOOKS GREAT-BUT CAN'T REPLY TO AN ADMIN POST-FYI!!!
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Bookiebust on Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:03 pm

lrcredneck85 wrote:812 Kansas -5 -110
814 Oregon +1.5 -110
815 WVU +3.5 -110/+155
817 Xavier +7.5 -110/+300

GOOD CALL RED-WOULDN'T OF CHANGED MY BET-CAME DOWN TO THE LAST SHOT!!! AND THAT'S A WAGER!!!!???
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by Admin on Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:31 pm

Bookiebust wrote:OX- TV LOOKS GREAT-BUT CAN'T REPLY TO AN ADMIN POST-FYI!!!

OK thx....all of us are learning...
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by lrcredneck85 on Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:35 pm

Bookiebust wrote:
lrcredneck85 wrote:812 Kansas -5 -110
814 Oregon +1.5 -110
815 WVU +3.5 -110/+155
817 Xavier +7.5 -110/+300

GOOD CALL RED-WOULDN'T OF CHANGED MY BET-CAME DOWN TO THE LAST SHOT!!! AND THAT'S A WAGER!!!!???
it was a coin flip the whole game no doubt...reverse line movement nothing to balk at though.
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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by playa-playa on Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:45 am

Very Happy Very Happy
lrcredneck85 wrote:812 Kansas -5 -110
814 Oregon +1.5 -110
815 WVU +3.5 -110/+155
817 Xavier +7.5 -110/+300


DE MAN...GREAT JOB

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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

Post by leeball69 on Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:30 am

Nicely Done

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Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter

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