Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
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lrcredneck85
Bookiebust
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Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
*********PLEASE READ************
Primary Board (See "New Users Start Here: BOARD RULES" for complete rules)
This is an excerpt from the BOARD RULES:
- No personal attacks of ANY kind
- No 'calling out' individual cappers based on their picks or anything else.
-- It's your decision to use the information or not.
-- Respect everyone's opinions.
- No calling games EARLY (before they are OVER). This is bad karma.
- Go easy on the foul language; a little is OK, just don't over do it.
- Keep a "positive" attitude: as we like to say: win or lose it's all about being with the "family".
- No intentional over-the-top ribbing of another capper, with the intent to get their "ire" up.
-- This is ALL meant to keep with the positive, up-beat, encouraging atmosphere of our home
-- "Good-natured" banter on team matchups, etc., are acceptable so long as they stay positive, are "in fun" and are not excessive.
- No multiple IDs to 'build yourself up'. That's just wrong. When detected, all such IDs will be immediately banned.
- It is "assumed" that all plays you post, have your hard-earned $$ on them! No need to post how much, but understand that this assumption is important to the integrity of the board!
- No LATE posts... please get your plays in BEFORE the action begins. (Late picks benefit no one but YOU, and that's not what this board is about).
Check the EGOs at the DOOR! There's no need to be "better" than everyone else. We're all here to collaborate, share insights, have FUN, and make $$ where possible!
Try to keep the language consistent with a positive atmosphere; limit the profanity please. Please do not violate these rules. Violations can result in a ban from this board.
*************
Because of the VERY diverse group of personalities and such here, there is a mechanism built into the board called "FRIENDS & FOES":
User Control Panel (upper left corner) -> Friends & Foe Tab.
Here you can list FRIENDS, and their posts will be HIGHLIGHTED. And FOES: and their posts will be invisible.
This is a feature you are all welcome to use in whatever manner you like! (I think you get my drift!!)
**********
Primary Board (See "New Users Start Here: BOARD RULES" for complete rules)
This is an excerpt from the BOARD RULES:
- No personal attacks of ANY kind
- No 'calling out' individual cappers based on their picks or anything else.
-- It's your decision to use the information or not.
-- Respect everyone's opinions.
- No calling games EARLY (before they are OVER). This is bad karma.
- Go easy on the foul language; a little is OK, just don't over do it.
- Keep a "positive" attitude: as we like to say: win or lose it's all about being with the "family".
- No intentional over-the-top ribbing of another capper, with the intent to get their "ire" up.
-- This is ALL meant to keep with the positive, up-beat, encouraging atmosphere of our home
-- "Good-natured" banter on team matchups, etc., are acceptable so long as they stay positive, are "in fun" and are not excessive.
- No multiple IDs to 'build yourself up'. That's just wrong. When detected, all such IDs will be immediately banned.
- It is "assumed" that all plays you post, have your hard-earned $$ on them! No need to post how much, but understand that this assumption is important to the integrity of the board!
- No LATE posts... please get your plays in BEFORE the action begins. (Late picks benefit no one but YOU, and that's not what this board is about).
Check the EGOs at the DOOR! There's no need to be "better" than everyone else. We're all here to collaborate, share insights, have FUN, and make $$ where possible!
Try to keep the language consistent with a positive atmosphere; limit the profanity please. Please do not violate these rules. Violations can result in a ban from this board.
*************
Because of the VERY diverse group of personalities and such here, there is a mechanism built into the board called "FRIENDS & FOES":
User Control Panel (upper left corner) -> Friends & Foe Tab.
Here you can list FRIENDS, and their posts will be HIGHLIGHTED. And FOES: and their posts will be invisible.
This is a feature you are all welcome to use in whatever manner you like! (I think you get my drift!!)
**********
Last edited by Bookiebust on Sat Mar 25, 2017 5:17 am; edited 1 time in total
Bookiebust- Posts : 466
Join date : 2017-03-18
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
NCAA Sweet 16 Returnees: Swimming With The Sharks
With the 2017 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let's take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived.
This one pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year.
Do these experienced teams perform with aplomb or do they bomb? It all depends on the situation.
Let's take a peek.
ALL HANDS ON DECK
Unlike the last two years when half a dozen teams each returned to round of 32 this season, only five make a return visit this season. They include Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon and Wisconsin.
According to our database, since 1992, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are 80-51 SU but only 58-70-3 ATS in this round of the tourney.
The cut-line, however, is often times the situation surrounding the game.
Check out the examples below.
NOT QUITE A 10
Looking at it from a varied perspective, SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 33-27 SU and 23-35-2 ATS.
This year finds four of the five returnees, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oregon and Wisconsin coming up short in the gene pool.
And making matters worse, if any of these sweet tomatoes sport a high profile public-loving win percentage of .790 or greater on the season they fall to 11-22-1 ATS.
Not particularly good news for the Zags, the Tar Heels, or the Ducks.
HOT DIGGETY DOG
One of the major roles Sweet 16 Returnees will respond to, however, is when they are cast into an underdog position.
Simply put, Sweet 16 Returnees cast into a Rodney Dangerfield lack of respect role of an underdog of 8 or less points are 16-11-1 ATS. That alone pulls Oregon and Wisconsin off the hook outlined above when they take on Michigan and Florida, respectively.
Better yet, if they are taking facing a sub .830 opponent in this role they win 62% of the time on the scoreboard, going 8-5 SU and 9-3-1 ATS.
Go Ducks!
SEEDY DEVELOPMENT
As expected, #1 and #2 seeds fare the best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 58-17 SU combined. To the spread, however, they are just 37-37-1 ATS, including 12-16-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points (read: Gonzaga and Kansas).
Meanwhile, the same Sweet 16 Returnee No. 1 and No. 2 seeds that are favored by 6 or fewer points are just 2-8-1 ATS in these games when taking on .800 or greater foes. Once again, this is not good news for the Zags or the Jayhawks.
Make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have 'been there-and-done that.'
Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean...
With the 2017 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let's take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived.
This one pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year.
Do these experienced teams perform with aplomb or do they bomb? It all depends on the situation.
Let's take a peek.
ALL HANDS ON DECK
Unlike the last two years when half a dozen teams each returned to round of 32 this season, only five make a return visit this season. They include Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon and Wisconsin.
According to our database, since 1992, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are 80-51 SU but only 58-70-3 ATS in this round of the tourney.
The cut-line, however, is often times the situation surrounding the game.
Check out the examples below.
NOT QUITE A 10
Looking at it from a varied perspective, SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 33-27 SU and 23-35-2 ATS.
This year finds four of the five returnees, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oregon and Wisconsin coming up short in the gene pool.
And making matters worse, if any of these sweet tomatoes sport a high profile public-loving win percentage of .790 or greater on the season they fall to 11-22-1 ATS.
Not particularly good news for the Zags, the Tar Heels, or the Ducks.
HOT DIGGETY DOG
One of the major roles Sweet 16 Returnees will respond to, however, is when they are cast into an underdog position.
Simply put, Sweet 16 Returnees cast into a Rodney Dangerfield lack of respect role of an underdog of 8 or less points are 16-11-1 ATS. That alone pulls Oregon and Wisconsin off the hook outlined above when they take on Michigan and Florida, respectively.
Better yet, if they are taking facing a sub .830 opponent in this role they win 62% of the time on the scoreboard, going 8-5 SU and 9-3-1 ATS.
Go Ducks!
SEEDY DEVELOPMENT
As expected, #1 and #2 seeds fare the best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 58-17 SU combined. To the spread, however, they are just 37-37-1 ATS, including 12-16-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points (read: Gonzaga and Kansas).
Meanwhile, the same Sweet 16 Returnee No. 1 and No. 2 seeds that are favored by 6 or fewer points are just 2-8-1 ATS in these games when taking on .800 or greater foes. Once again, this is not good news for the Zags or the Jayhawks.
Make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have 'been there-and-done that.'
Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean...
Bookiebust- Posts : 466
Join date : 2017-03-18
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
812 Kansas -5 -110
814 Oregon +1.5 -110
815 WVU +3.5 -110/+155
817 Xavier +7.5 -110/+300
814 Oregon +1.5 -110
815 WVU +3.5 -110/+155
817 Xavier +7.5 -110/+300
lrcredneck85- Posts : 213
Join date : 2017-03-19
Age : 43
Location : Pottstown PA
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
BLUES A GOOD COLOR WELL AFTER 1 GOOD AND 2 UNEVEN NIT NIGHTS-LET'S GET BACK TO WORK. RED-WE AGREE ON 3 OF 4. NOT BAD-HUNGOVER MINDS!!! GL TO US ALL$$$
6PT
813 Michigan +4½ for Game
815 W Virginia +9½ for Game
815 W Virginia +9½ for Game
817 Xavier +13½ for Game
STRAIGHT
813 Michigan -1½ -110 for Game
813 Michigan (Oregon / Michigan) Over 74½ -115 for Game
815 W Virginia +3½ -110 for Game
815 W Virginia +150 for Game
815 W Virginia (Gonzaga / W Virginia) Over 73 -115 for Game
817 Xavier +7½ -110 for Game
817 Xavier (Arizona / Xavier) Over 68½ -115 for Game
812 Kansas -5 -110 for Game
4 TO 1 PARLAY
812 Kansas -225 for Game
815 W Virginia +3½ -110 for Game
817 Xavier +7½ -110 for Game
6PT
813 Michigan +4½ for Game
815 W Virginia +9½ for Game
815 W Virginia +9½ for Game
817 Xavier +13½ for Game
STRAIGHT
813 Michigan -1½ -110 for Game
813 Michigan (Oregon / Michigan) Over 74½ -115 for Game
815 W Virginia +3½ -110 for Game
815 W Virginia +150 for Game
815 W Virginia (Gonzaga / W Virginia) Over 73 -115 for Game
817 Xavier +7½ -110 for Game
817 Xavier (Arizona / Xavier) Over 68½ -115 for Game
812 Kansas -5 -110 for Game
4 TO 1 PARLAY
812 Kansas -225 for Game
815 W Virginia +3½ -110 for Game
817 Xavier +7½ -110 for Game
Bookiebust- Posts : 466
Join date : 2017-03-18
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
Thx bookie for getting the topic up! I fell asleep EARLY last night. New house is a mess, and I'm not even full out of the old. Grrrrrrrr. Wiping me out!
OxyNite- Posts : 209
Join date : 2017-03-19
Age : 59
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
OxyNite wrote:Thx bookie for getting the topic up! I fell asleep EARLY last night. New house is a mess, and I'm not even full out of the old. Grrrrrrrr. Wiping me out!
ALL GOOD MY FRIEND-DON'T KILL YOURSELF-GRAB A DRINK LATER AND WATCH BB
Bookiebust- Posts : 466
Join date : 2017-03-18
lrcredneck85- Posts : 213
Join date : 2017-03-19
Age : 43
Location : Pottstown PA
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
Michigan is at a pick!
Should of had a early line that would be the case! Right Bookie Bust?
Got Michigan pick also TT 74
Zags -3
Kansas 5 1/2
Depends on the early games leaning towards Xavier and the points
Should of had a early line that would be the case! Right Bookie Bust?
Got Michigan pick also TT 74
Zags -3
Kansas 5 1/2
Depends on the early games leaning towards Xavier and the points
leeball69- Posts : 22
Join date : 2017-03-18
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
Takin' your advice bookie! Put the big TV up earlier w/ my son, now it's "AhhhhhhH".
OxyNite- Posts : 209
Join date : 2017-03-19
Age : 59
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
Doesn't get any better than this!!!! (Maybe the old Vegas Hilton!)
OxyNite- Posts : 209
Join date : 2017-03-19
Age : 59
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
the westgate is terrible these days!!!! Mandalay sportsbook still the place to beOxyNite wrote:Doesn't get any better than this!!!! (Maybe the old Vegas Hilton!)
lrcredneck85- Posts : 213
Join date : 2017-03-19
Age : 43
Location : Pottstown PA
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
There was one year when Tyler (cornhusker) and I went for the first rounds and the Hilton did it up HUGE in their events venue. VIP passes for free beer, free food, and about 20 big-screens all over the venue!!!! One of the best 4 days of my life!!!
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
lrcredneck85 wrote:the westgate is terrible these days!!!! Mandalay sportsbook still the place to beOxyNite wrote:Doesn't get any better than this!!!! (Maybe the old Vegas Hilton!)
MGM AND CAESARS ALSO
Bookiebust- Posts : 466
Join date : 2017-03-18
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
OxyNite wrote:Doesn't get any better than this!!!! (Maybe the old Vegas Hilton!)
HILTON WAS GREAT-BUT DESERT INN FOR ME!!
Bookiebust- Posts : 466
Join date : 2017-03-18
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
leeball69 wrote:Michigan is at a pick!
Should of had a early line that would be the case! Right Bookie Bust?
Got Michigan pick also TT 74
Zags -3
Kansas 5 1/2
Depends on the early games leaning towards Xavier and the points
DOGFIGHT CITY-NEED 3 PTS A MINUTE NOW W MICH? WV LOOKING GOOD-GL TO ALL!!!
Bookiebust- Posts : 466
Join date : 2017-03-18
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
ADDING TO A CRAP SHOOT?
815 W Virginia pk +115 for 2nd Half
815 W Virginia (Gonzaga / W Virginia) Over 38 -115 for 2nd Half
815 W Virginia pk +115 for 2nd Half
815 W Virginia (Gonzaga / W Virginia) Over 38 -115 for 2nd Half
Bookiebust- Posts : 466
Join date : 2017-03-18
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
OX- TV LOOKS GREAT-BUT CAN'T REPLY TO AN ADMIN POST-FYI!!!
Bookiebust- Posts : 466
Join date : 2017-03-18
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
lrcredneck85 wrote:812 Kansas -5 -110
814 Oregon +1.5 -110
815 WVU +3.5 -110/+155
817 Xavier +7.5 -110/+300
GOOD CALL RED-WOULDN'T OF CHANGED MY BET-CAME DOWN TO THE LAST SHOT!!! AND THAT'S A WAGER!!!!???
Bookiebust- Posts : 466
Join date : 2017-03-18
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
Bookiebust wrote:OX- TV LOOKS GREAT-BUT CAN'T REPLY TO AN ADMIN POST-FYI!!!
OK thx....all of us are learning...
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
it was a coin flip the whole game no doubt...reverse line movement nothing to balk at though.Bookiebust wrote:lrcredneck85 wrote:812 Kansas -5 -110
814 Oregon +1.5 -110
815 WVU +3.5 -110/+155
817 Xavier +7.5 -110/+300
GOOD CALL RED-WOULDN'T OF CHANGED MY BET-CAME DOWN TO THE LAST SHOT!!! AND THAT'S A WAGER!!!!???
lrcredneck85- Posts : 213
Join date : 2017-03-19
Age : 43
Location : Pottstown PA
Re: Thurs., 3/23/17 Locks/Chatter
lrcredneck85 wrote:812 Kansas -5 -110
814 Oregon +1.5 -110
815 WVU +3.5 -110/+155
817 Xavier +7.5 -110/+300
DE MAN...GREAT JOB
playa-playa- Posts : 4
Join date : 2017-03-23
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